statistics (plate appearances & times on bases) not found Realmuto to other rookies who also had their Major League debut during the You might notice that some of the players left out are geographically close enough to Realmuto that they could theoretically be included. In my debut for The Good Phight, I will be analyzing the value of a potential contract extension for Phillies catcher J.T. Regardless of inevitable biases and imperfections, here is my attempt to pinpoint exactly how J.T. Obviously, there are a multitude of factors that play into catcher decline. Realmuto will be signing his deal almost a decade later, and due to ever-shifting markets, will likely be worth more than $23 million per season by 2021 market standards. Both Joe Mauer and Johnny Bench, two of the greatest backstops in baseball history, were out of the league by age 35 due to years of wear-and-tear sustained playing the position. Various modeling practices yield promising results, but sometimes it is simply a crapshoot trying to estimate how good a player is going to be across a six-year span. Jacob Tyler Realmuto (/ r iː l ˈ m uː t oʊ / reel-MOO-toh; born March 18, 1991) is an American professional baseball catcher for the Philadelphia Phillies of Major League Baseball (MLB). No disrespect to Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella and other great catchers of previous eras, but the catcher position has evolved considerably over the last half-century. It is my estimation that if 30-year-old Brian McCann and 32-year-old Russell Martin can get 5 years, then J.T.
The drawback is the final result will favor the players who have lower ages 26-28 WAR values than Realmuto, simply because there are more of them.The following graph shows a loess curve that follows the smoothed average values for WAR between the ages of 29 and 35.
Method 2: Take two smoothed averages, one for players with higher, and one for players with lower ages 26-28 WAR values than Realmuto. Because of the current skew, I have decided to approach this issue using two different methods.For now, here is the refined list of comparable catchers:This list is quite impressive. From this dataset, Javy Lopez is a prime example of the difficulties of tracking human performance. No one spent more innings behind the plate than he did last season.Realmuto batted everywhere from second to fifth last season. The stud backstop now has seven home runs and 17 RBI in just 48 at-bats. This is the equation used to calculate it: Surplus Value = WAR x ($/WAR Amount) - SalaryThe two methods actually yield very similar results. Miami Marlins sent C J.T. The Phillies Should Absolutely Sign JT Realmuto But They Should Also Probably Stop Sucking Ass.
Signing a catcher to a long-term deal is a quantifiable risk, always has been and always will be.Like I said before, predicting human performance is extremely difficult. According to his projected performance and expected salary, Realmuto theoretically classifies as someone who is underperforming his contract, which is common for players on long-term deals in their thirties.Surplus value is a useful tool, especially for small-market clubs, to be able to find impact players on a tight budget.
Realmuto continues to light it up to begin the season, going 9-for-27 (.333) through seven games with four homers and nine RBI.Realmuto was never expected to start both ends of the twin bill, and he started the matinee and went 2-for-3 with a home run, two runs, two RBI and two walks.
Comparing catchers of today to catchers of 80 years ago is not the most fruitful endeavor.I will be mapping J.T.
Realmuto can get 6. Bryce Harper, left, and JT Realmuto of the Phillies high-five after their victory against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park on April 16, 2019. March 29, 2018 Miami Marlins placed C J.T.
When you try to do that, it is not going to happen as often as you want.
There is no sense in adding more bias. Realmuto was born on Monday, March 18, 1991, in Del City, Oklahoma. The chart below contains Realmuto’s projected WAR outputs for both methods, as well as the estimated surplus values for both methods. On one hand, catchers seldom age well and are usually risky investments.
A plot of Realmuto’s ages 26-28 production, compared to similar catchers, looks like this:For historical context, I included the names of the five catchers whose ages 26-28 WAR values most closely resemble Realmuto’s. I added age 29 because it provides a glimpse of how Realmuto could perform in his walk-year. Check his article out As schmenkman outlined, J.T. I think it's pretty clear at this point that I'm not the biggest baseball guy in the world. Could a move to first base prolong Realmuto’s career? J.T. Realmuto: Remains out for second gamePhillies' J.T. Realmuto’s ages 30-35 (expected contract duration) wins above replacement values based off the data from similar catchers in the same age range.
The Marlins converted Realmuto from shortstop to catcher in their minor league clubs in North Carolina, Jupiter, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.Realmuto began 2014 playing for Jacksonville again.On June 1, 2014, Realmuto was called up to the Marlins in the MLB for the first time.In 2015, while Realmuto joined the Marlins for spring training, he was sent to Triple-A to start the season, but stayed with the In 2016 he batted .303/.343/.428 with 11 home runs and 48 RBIs and 12 stolen bases in 509 at bats.In 2019, he batted .275/.328/.493 in 538 at bats with a career-high 92 runs, 36 doubles (the most ever by a Phillies catcher), 25 home runs, 83 RBIs, eight sacrifice flies (5th in the NL), and stole nine bases while being caught once.Realmuto married Alexis (née Taylor) prior to 2016 These estimated WAR values are what their name says they are, estimations.